Television in 2005

This article was first published in the Age on January 1, 2005

While perennial favourites, like crime, history and medical dramas will continue to be the height of fashion this year on television, the new black for 2005 is climate change. As well, there is an emerging interest in people getting lost. In other trends, the mini-series is back. There will continue to be a lot of emphasis on 'reality'. The model of entertainment involving 'writing' and 'acting' is as unfashionable as a Shakespearian puffy sleeve.

2004 was not a great year for television, seeing the continued decline of support for Australian drama, a deluge of reality shows and the end of many long lasting favourites such as Friends and Sex in the City. But in more subtle ways it was not a predictable year with the balance of power between the stations drifting like so many continental plates.

The highest rating comedy was the ABC's Kath and Kim, and that station enjoyed the greatest rise in audience share, with an average increase of 7 % - which, perhaps, reflect the gulf between mainstream viewers and those who like less commercial fare. Expect lots of good things, including a new series of Miss Marple, new episodes of the wonderful State of Play as well as a series on The Blues narrated by Martin Scorcese.

SBS, on the other hand, seems to be caught in an identity crisis - friendly multicultural station or food for yuppies? The lack of certainty has affected their ratings, but they continue to commission really interesting Australian content, show great movies on Sunday nights (that you haven't already seen) and some of the best documentaries around - indeed, as they aren't as tied into commercial ratings periods they begin two of their best this January. The Corporation (8.30 pm, January 5), and Melvyn Bragg's The Adventure of English (7.30 pm, January 9).

Channel Seven has been struggling for a couple of years now, but in the second half of 2004 its ratings seem to turn a corner. As well as scoring the most talked about show for 2005, Desperate Housewives - which promises to be the Melrose of the naughties - it also has another of the US's most popular series: Lost. From this distance it looks promising: think Gilligan's Island crossed with Lord of the Flies.

Meanwhile, over at Channel Nine the jingle 'Still the One' is sounding increasingly shrill though the rule of Bruckheimer should continue a while yet. Without a Trace, Cold Case, and all the CSI's are coming back, as well as a new series - CSI: New York. To capitalise on the success of crime for Nine are two new factual entertainment (whatever that means) Australian series, Suspicious Minds and Missing. They will also be showing the mini-series, Rome.

As for comedy, Nine have lost Friends, but the Matt Le Blanc spin-off, Joey, is something to look forward to. Seven is showing the funniest show on TV at the moment, Arrested Development, though it seems determined to bury it over summer and late at night.

King of the Kids is Channel Ten, who have won ratings war for hearts of 16 to 39 year olds. The O. C. promises to be better than ever this year with such tasty sub plots as Marissa 'doing' the yard boy. Another series to look forward to is The 4400 starring Australia's Jacqueline McKenzie - it takes up where the mini-series left off. The longest running crime series in the history of television, Dick Wolf's Law & Order will be back, as will its mutant offspring, Criminal Intent and SVU - but a bit of new(ish) blood will be injected into the franchise with Law & Order: Trial By Jury. Ten will also be showing the new Steven Bochco (creator of NYPD Blue) crime series, Blind Justice and a series called Medium, starring Patricia Arquette.

Seven will be screening Day of Destruction, a miniseries about the worst super storm in history, as well as a nature series called Massive Nature. ABC will be also be doing uber-weather with Super Volcano, a series that imagines the consequences of the volcano under Yellow Stone National Park blowing, and heralding a new ice age. And while some of us hoped the tidal wave of reality TV last year might drown the genre, it seems that it was the Australian drama series that were swamped instead and last year good dramas like Fire Flies and The Cooks struggled for viewers. While old favorites will return, there is not much that's new to look forward to. Campus, an Australian soap set, you guessed it, on a campus, is coming to Seven. Ten's convict drama, Mary Bryant, is being touted as the highest-budget mini-series ever made in Australia. Nine still wont say whether The Alice will become a series, though given the ratings of the telemovie you would hope so. I'm a big fan of the telemovie, and this year it will keep some good Australian shows alive - such as ABC's MDA, Ten's Small Claims, and Black Jack.

Reality TV seems destined to become to the Naughties what Variety Shows were to the Sixties. Shows like Survivor, Big Brother, Australian Idol, Restaurant Rules and The Block all topped the ratings last year, and will live to fight/shag/sing/cook and renovate in 2005. The non-commercials aim to add class using history. SBS's The Colony, starts on January 25 and transports a group of English, Irish and Australians back in time. In the ABC's Outback House hapless volunteers are thrown back to 1861. Ten is doing an Australian version of Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, and Nine will be showing Celebrity Overhaul. Nine are also doing the talent show Starstruck, a series that seems fairly indistinguishable from Ten's The X Factor.

My key prediction is that 2005 will be the year of the Desperate Critic, as the gulf between the shows that the critic's praise, and the shows that rate, grows ever increasingly wider. Reality TV has erupted throwing up a cloud of dust so great no light can penetrate. Those of us who have survived the initial eruption will be forced to forage for entertainment on video and DVD. Who knows what new species, other than the indestructible Jerry Bruckheimer and Dick Wolf - will rule TV when the air has cleared.

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